理論THY-2026-0004v0.1

概率不等於貝葉斯；貝葉斯不能自我授權前提

一個系統可以是隨機的、概率的或概率形狀的，卻沒有做 Bayesian conditionalization；也可以看起來像 Bayesian，卻沒有真正的 prior、likelihood 或 posterior。一套分層詞彙（stochastic、probabilistic、Bayesian-like、exact、approximate、generalized Bayesian）與「Bayesian authenticity test」檢查一次更新是實質 Bayesian 還是事後被重新描述成 Bayesian；而更新規則本身——prior、likelihood、假設空間——需要一個 Bayes 公式給不出的授權（第 9–10 篇）。

研究狀態: PRELIMINARY 已有初步的形式化或觀察
證據等級: E0 僅有概念
資料基礎: THEORY 純理論推理，沒有量測。
版本: 0.1
更新: 2026-09-08
建立: 2026-09-10
領域: Formal AI, Reasoning
計畫: PRG-2026-0001 自適應世界狀態系統的第一原理框架
作者: Neo.K (EveMissLab)
AI 協作: Sol (GPT-5.6, OpenAI ChatGPT)

主張

claims: 'This is a probabilistic system' and 'this is a Bayesian system' are not equivalent statements.
Bayesian updating is one belief-revision operator among several; the epistemic router should choose the operator explicitly and record its provenance.

預測

predictions: An adaptive epistemic router beats AlwaysBayes, AlwaysLogic and AlwaysRobust across mixed domains only if operator choice is explicit and traced (Paper 11 §86).

證偽／失敗條件

falsification_conditions: Fixed Bayesian updating dominates every mixed-domain test at equal cost.

已知限制

known_limitations: Formal/conceptual so far; the AER-0 router implements four operators but no mixed-domain routing benchmark has been run.

關係

來源	關係	目標	狀態	ID
`RES-2026-0001` 自適應認識系統的盲推導	`develops`	`THY-2026-0004` 概率不等於貝葉斯；貝葉斯不能自我授權前提	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0013`
`RES-2026-0002` PACC 猜想——非概率 primitive 會不會收斂到概率表象？	`develops`	`THY-2026-0004` 概率不等於貝葉斯；貝葉斯不能自我授權前提	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0014`
`PAP-2026-0009` 概率不等於貝葉斯——從隨機系統、概率模型到 Bayesian 更新的認識論邊界	`formalizes`	`THY-2026-0004` 概率不等於貝葉斯；貝葉斯不能自我授權前提	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0042`
`PAP-2026-0010` 貝葉斯中的貝葉斯——誰授權更新規則？從 Prior、Likelihood 到 Meta-Epistemology 的遞歸問題	`formalizes`	`THY-2026-0004` 概率不等於貝葉斯；貝葉斯不能自我授權前提	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0045`

歷史與來源歷程

Canonical URL

https://evemisslab.com/ai/theory/THY-2026-0004/

機器可讀

/ai/theory/THY-2026-0004/index.json

快照

AI-SNAPSHOT-v0.1-fe85b9694a45

來源歷程

source: EveMissLab research collection: Adaptive Epistemic Systems (真本體論13)
extracted_by: Splice (Claude Code), reading the canonical UTF-8 sources and each lab's own result reports
extracted_at: 2026-09-11
generator: tools/extract_aes/extract.py
claim_boundary: status, evidence level and result type follow the source artifact's own stated claim boundary; nothing is upgraded beyond what the report supports