ExperimentEXP-2026-0019v0.1

PACC-Lab v0.12 — bounded quadratic transition

Transition capacity rises in one preregistered step from 20 affine to 60 fixed degree-2 coefficients with charts, support, split, controls and thresholds unchanged. No family is rescued: reverse fidelity 0.0111 (N0/N1), 0.0139 (N2), 0.0141 (N3) versus the 0.01 gate, 0/4 secondary and 0/3 at larger scale; forward cocycle and inverse consistency survive the quadratic class. The lab stops here rather than escalating to cubic, quartic or neural transitions after seeing the result.

Research status: STABLE the current conclusions are relatively stable
Evidence level: E3 Repeated experiment
Result: NEGATIVE
Data basis: SYNTHETIC Synthetic data and theoretical reasoning. Many now treat synthetic data as if it were real; this laboratory says the opposite deliberately — until a real hybrid model exists, an inference is only an inference, and theoretically possible is not actually possible.
Version: 0.1
Updated: 2026-09-09
Created: 2026-09-09
Domain: Model Representation, Evaluation, Formal AI
Program: PRG-2026-0001 Adaptive Epistemic Systems
Authors: Neo.K (EveMissLab)
AI collaborators: Sol (GPT-5.6, OpenAI ChatGPT)

Hypothesis

hypothesis: The reverse destination bias is an artefact of the 4-D affine transition class.

Setup

model_ids: MOD-2026-0001 N0 — signed support
MOD-2026-0002 N1 — ordinal tournament
MOD-2026-0003 N2 — signed graph
MOD-2026-0004 N3 — constraint competition
MOD-2026-0005 Bayesian reference (exact posterior / Beta-Bernoulli / joint common-cause / HMM)
dataset_ids: DAT-2026-0001 PACC synthetic evidence worlds
benchmark_ids: BEN-2026-0001 PACC micro-lab protocol v0.1 (frozen gates)
software_environment: Python; deterministic seeded generators; no network, no LLM.

Runs

run_count

random_seeds

20260909
3
5
7
11
3 primary-scale-ish seeds

controls

shuffled-target mapping
constant prediction
broken composition (v0.6+)
target-local refit (v0.7+)

metrics

verdict

REVERSE BIAS PERSISTS UNDER BOUNDED QUADRATIC

quadratic_reverse_fidelity

N0: 0.01108
N2: 0.01392
N3: 0.0141

gate

0.01

quadratic_reverse_pass

0/4 and 0/3

forward_cocycle

PASS

inverse_pairs

PASS (N2 2/3 at scale)

Interpretation

interpretation: Rejects the affine-limitation explanation and strengthens a persistent directional/base-point mismatch as the next hypothesis. A sufficiently flexible approximator could fit any finite sample, which is exactly why capacity was bounded in advance.

Limitations

limitations: Does not prove that no nonlinear transition can remove the bias.

Reproduction

reproduction_instructions: Extract the version's FINAL bundle; python -m pytest -q; run the version's primary script with the recorded seed; docs/PACC_LAB_v0.N_RESULTS.md and docs/EXPERIMENT_PROTOCOL_v0.N.md are inside the bundle.

Recorded fields

completed_at: 2026-09-09

Relations

Source	Relation	Target	Status	ID
`EXP-2026-0019` PACC-Lab v0.12 — bounded quadratic transition	`runs_on`	`SYS-2026-0002` PACC-Lab — micro-lab harness for the convergence conjecture	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0291`
`EXP-2026-0019` PACC-Lab v0.12 — bounded quadratic transition	`uses_benchmark`	`BEN-2026-0001` PACC micro-lab protocol v0.1 (frozen gates)	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0292`
`EXP-2026-0019` PACC-Lab v0.12 — bounded quadratic transition	`uses_dataset`	`DAT-2026-0001` PACC synthetic evidence worlds	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0293`
`EXP-2026-0019` PACC-Lab v0.12 — bounded quadratic transition	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0001` N0 — signed support	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0294`
`EXP-2026-0019` PACC-Lab v0.12 — bounded quadratic transition	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0002` N1 — ordinal tournament	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0295`
`EXP-2026-0019` PACC-Lab v0.12 — bounded quadratic transition	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0003` N2 — signed graph	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0296`
`EXP-2026-0019` PACC-Lab v0.12 — bounded quadratic transition	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0004` N3 — constraint competition	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0297`
`EXP-2026-0019` PACC-Lab v0.12 — bounded quadratic transition	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0005` Bayesian reference (exact posterior / Beta-Bernoulli / joint common-cause / HMM)	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0298`
`EXP-2026-0019` PACC-Lab v0.12 — bounded quadratic transition	`tests`	`THY-2026-0005` PACC conjecture — the four-level convergence ladder	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0299`
`EXP-2026-0019` PACC-Lab v0.12 — bounded quadratic transition	`extends`	`EXP-2026-0018` PACC-Lab v0.11 — bidirectional cocycle and inverse consistency	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0300`
`EXP-2026-0019` PACC-Lab v0.12 — bounded quadratic transition	`produced`	`ART-2026-0032` PACC-Lab v0.12 Bounded Nonlinear Transition FINAL `artifact://evemisslab/adaptive-epistemic-systems/PACC-Lab_v0.12_Bounded_Nonlinear_Transition_FINAL.zip`	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0301`
`EXP-2026-0020` PACC-Lab v0.13 — reverse residual field / base-point dependence	`extends`	`EXP-2026-0019` PACC-Lab v0.12 — bounded quadratic transition	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0311`

History and provenance

Canonical URL

https://evemisslab.com/ai/experiments/EXP-2026-0019/

Machine-readable

/ai/experiments/EXP-2026-0019/index.json

Snapshot

AI-SNAPSHOT-v0.1-fe85b9694a45

Provenance

source: EveMissLab research collection: Adaptive Epistemic Systems (真本體論13)
extracted_by: Splice (Claude Code), reading the canonical UTF-8 sources and each lab's own result reports
extracted_at: 2026-09-11
generator: tools/extract_aes/extract.py
claim_boundary: status, evidence level and result type follow the source artifact's own stated claim boundary; nothing is upgraded beyond what the report supports