ExperimentEXP-2026-0011v0.1

PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry

Sources are grouped into clusters with a latent shared inversion; the correct reference uses the joint likelihood and a naive independent-product Bayes is the negative control (joint beats naive in moderate and high geometry; gap exactly 0 in the independent geometry). Non-probabilistic systems see only cluster membership. Task-state convergence survives: N0/N1/N3 pass in moderate and high correlation (N2 drops to agreement 0.8364 in high). The latent dependence coordinate — the posterior that the cluster is in its corrupted branch — is not recovered by a train-only affine-sigmoid map from any system: real JS ≈ shuffled ≈ constant.

Research status: STABLE the current conclusions are relatively stable
Evidence level: E3 Repeated experiment
Result: MIXED
Data basis: SYNTHETIC Synthetic data and theoretical reasoning. Many now treat synthetic data as if it were real; this laboratory says the opposite deliberately — until a real hybrid model exists, an inference is only an inference, and theoretically possible is not actually possible.
Version: 0.1
Updated: 2026-09-09
Created: 2026-09-09
Domain: Model Representation, Evaluation, Formal AI
Program: PRG-2026-0001 Adaptive Epistemic Systems
Authors: Neo.K (EveMissLab)
AI collaborators: Sol (GPT-5.6, OpenAI ChatGPT)

Hypothesis

hypothesis: Task-state convergence survives dependent evidence, and the non-probabilistic relation state itself maps to the Bayesian common-cause posterior.

Setup

model_ids: MOD-2026-0001 N0 — signed support
MOD-2026-0002 N1 — ordinal tournament
MOD-2026-0003 N2 — signed graph
MOD-2026-0004 N3 — constraint competition
MOD-2026-0005 Bayesian reference (exact posterior / Beta-Bernoulli / joint common-cause / HMM)
dataset_ids: DAT-2026-0001 PACC synthetic evidence worlds
benchmark_ids: BEN-2026-0001 PACC micro-lab protocol v0.1 (frozen gates)
software_environment: Python; deterministic seeded generators; no network, no LLM.

Runs

run_count

random_seeds

20260909
6 secondary seeds
4 high-correlation seeds at primary scale

controls

shuffled-target mapping
constant prediction
broken composition (v0.6+)
target-local refit (v0.7+)

metrics

verdict

TASK-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SURVIVES DEPENDENT EVIDENCE; LATENT DEPENDENCE-STATE CONVERGENCE NOT SUPPORTED

environment

joint_vs_naive_logloss

independent: 1.245687
1.245687
moderate: 1.632599
1.834445
high: 1.758082
2.018617

task

moderate

N0

agreement: 0.955247
D_R: 0.008095

N3

agreement: 0.942901
D_R: 0.008234

high

N0

agreement: 0.861111
D_R: 0.009827

N2

agreement: 0.83642
D_R: 0.017874

dependence_coordinate

moderate_real_js: 0.0605
moderate_shuffled: 0.0641
moderate_constant: 0.0615
high_real_js: 0.0398
high_shuffled: 0.04
high_constant: 0.0397
pass: 0

Interpretation

interpretation: A layered picture: a decision-relevant quotient state can converge to a probabilistic coordinate while a deeper latent explanatory variable stays representation-dependent — evidence against the strongest 'everything becomes probability-like' reading.

Limitations

limitations: A result about the current state representation and frozen readout, not a theorem that no richer relation graph could encode the latent variable.
Cluster membership is given, not learned.

Reproduction

reproduction_instructions: Extract the version's FINAL bundle; python -m pytest -q; run the version's primary script with the recorded seed; docs/PACC_LAB_v0.N_RESULTS.md and docs/EXPERIMENT_PROTOCOL_v0.N.md are inside the bundle.

Results

Source	Relation	Target	Status	ID
`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`produces`	`RST-2026-0008` v0.4: latent dependence coordinate not recovered	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0204`

Recorded fields

completed_at: 2026-09-09

Relations

Source	Relation	Target	Status	ID
`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`runs_on`	`SYS-2026-0002` PACC-Lab — micro-lab harness for the convergence conjecture	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0193`
`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`uses_benchmark`	`BEN-2026-0001` PACC micro-lab protocol v0.1 (frozen gates)	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0194`
`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`uses_dataset`	`DAT-2026-0001` PACC synthetic evidence worlds	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0195`
`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0001` N0 — signed support	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0196`
`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0002` N1 — ordinal tournament	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0197`
`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0003` N2 — signed graph	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0198`
`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0004` N3 — constraint competition	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0199`
`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0005` Bayesian reference (exact posterior / Beta-Bernoulli / joint common-cause / HMM)	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0200`
`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`tests`	`THY-2026-0005` PACC conjecture — the four-level convergence ladder	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0201`
`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`extends`	`EXP-2026-0010` PACC-Lab v0.3 — learned source reliability without an oracle	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0202`
`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`produced`	`ART-2026-0024` PACC-Lab v0.4 Correlated Sources FINAL `artifact://evemisslab/adaptive-epistemic-systems/PACC-Lab_v0.4_Correlated_Sources_FINAL.zip`	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0203`
`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`produces`	`RST-2026-0008` v0.4: latent dependence coordinate not recovered	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0204`
`EXP-2026-0012` PACC-Lab v0.5 — does a richer relation state rescue the latent coordinate?	`extends`	`EXP-2026-0011` PACC-Lab v0.4 — correlated sources and dependence geometry	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0215`

History and provenance

Canonical URL

https://evemisslab.com/ai/experiments/EXP-2026-0011/

Machine-readable

/ai/experiments/EXP-2026-0011/index.json

Snapshot

AI-SNAPSHOT-v0.1-fe85b9694a45

Provenance

source: EveMissLab research collection: Adaptive Epistemic Systems (真本體論13)
extracted_by: Splice (Claude Code), reading the canonical UTF-8 sources and each lab's own result reports
extracted_at: 2026-09-11
generator: tools/extract_aes/extract.py
claim_boundary: status, evidence level and result type follow the source artifact's own stated claim boundary; nothing is upgraded beyond what the report supports