ExperimentEXP-2026-0016v0.1

PACC-Lab v0.9 — a three-anchor probability-coordinate atlas

Three preregistered charts at q = 0.12, 0.24, 0.36 give every family the same union {0.06 … 0.36}: 8/9 sweep coverage, stable across three secondary seeds, never covering q = 0.42. Nearest charts (0.12/0.24) agree directly; distant charts (0.12/0.36) do not (task JS ≈ 0.071–0.082), yet low-complexity transition maps calibrated on an independent seed pass 5/6 directions per family on the primary protocol — the weak direction is 0.36 → 0.12 (latent JS ≈ 0.017–0.021 > 0.01). Transition coherence is not robust across secondary seeds (mean pass ≈ 0.53–0.67).

Research status: STABLE the current conclusions are relatively stable
Evidence level: E3 Repeated experiment
Result: MIXED
Data basis: SYNTHETIC Synthetic data and theoretical reasoning. Many now treat synthetic data as if it were real; this laboratory says the opposite deliberately — until a real hybrid model exists, an inference is only an inference, and theoretically possible is not actually possible.
Version: 0.1
Updated: 2026-09-09
Created: 2026-09-09
Domain: Model Representation, Evaluation, Formal AI
Program: PRG-2026-0001 Adaptive Epistemic Systems
Authors: Neo.K (EveMissLab)
AI collaborators: Sol (GPT-5.6, OpenAI ChatGPT)

Hypothesis

hypothesis: A small multi-anchor atlas covers the sweep and its charts are mutually translatable by low-complexity transitions.

Setup

model_ids: MOD-2026-0001 N0 — signed support
MOD-2026-0002 N1 — ordinal tournament
MOD-2026-0003 N2 — signed graph
MOD-2026-0004 N3 — constraint competition
MOD-2026-0005 Bayesian reference (exact posterior / Beta-Bernoulli / joint common-cause / HMM)
dataset_ids: DAT-2026-0001 PACC synthetic evidence worlds
benchmark_ids: BEN-2026-0001 PACC micro-lab protocol v0.1 (frozen gates)
software_environment: Python; deterministic seeded generators; no network, no LLM.

Runs

run_count

random_seeds

20260909
independent calibration seed
3 secondary seeds

controls

shuffled-target mapping
constant prediction
broken composition (v0.6+)
target-local refit (v0.7+)

metrics

verdict

PARTIAL_MULTI_ANCHOR_ATLAS

coverage

8/9

uncovered_q

0.42

transition_pass_primary

5/6 per family

weak_direction

0.36→0.12

secondary_transition_pass_rate

N0_N1: 0.667
N2: 0.528
N3: 0.583

Interpretation

interpretation: Rejects both extremes — one global chart (finite coverage) and unrelated local charts (overlaps translate cheaply) — leaving partially overlapping probability-like charts with finite coverage and nonuniform transition coherence.

Limitations

limitations: Full atlas coverage, robust transition coherence, cocycle consistency and manifold structure not established.

Reproduction

reproduction_instructions: Extract the version's FINAL bundle; python -m pytest -q; run the version's primary script with the recorded seed; docs/PACC_LAB_v0.N_RESULTS.md and docs/EXPERIMENT_PROTOCOL_v0.N.md are inside the bundle.

Recorded fields

completed_at: 2026-09-09

Relations

Source	Relation	Target	Status	ID
`EXP-2026-0016` PACC-Lab v0.9 — a three-anchor probability-coordinate atlas	`runs_on`	`SYS-2026-0002` PACC-Lab — micro-lab harness for the convergence conjecture	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0254`
`EXP-2026-0016` PACC-Lab v0.9 — a three-anchor probability-coordinate atlas	`uses_benchmark`	`BEN-2026-0001` PACC micro-lab protocol v0.1 (frozen gates)	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0255`
`EXP-2026-0016` PACC-Lab v0.9 — a three-anchor probability-coordinate atlas	`uses_dataset`	`DAT-2026-0001` PACC synthetic evidence worlds	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0256`
`EXP-2026-0016` PACC-Lab v0.9 — a three-anchor probability-coordinate atlas	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0001` N0 — signed support	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0257`
`EXP-2026-0016` PACC-Lab v0.9 — a three-anchor probability-coordinate atlas	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0002` N1 — ordinal tournament	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0258`
`EXP-2026-0016` PACC-Lab v0.9 — a three-anchor probability-coordinate atlas	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0003` N2 — signed graph	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0259`
`EXP-2026-0016` PACC-Lab v0.9 — a three-anchor probability-coordinate atlas	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0004` N3 — constraint competition	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0260`
`EXP-2026-0016` PACC-Lab v0.9 — a three-anchor probability-coordinate atlas	`uses_model`	`MOD-2026-0005` Bayesian reference (exact posterior / Beta-Bernoulli / joint common-cause / HMM)	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0261`
`EXP-2026-0016` PACC-Lab v0.9 — a three-anchor probability-coordinate atlas	`tests`	`THY-2026-0005` PACC conjecture — the four-level convergence ladder	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0262`
`EXP-2026-0016` PACC-Lab v0.9 — a three-anchor probability-coordinate atlas	`extends`	`EXP-2026-0015` PACC-Lab v0.8 — frozen-coordinate transfer basins over a correlation sweep	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0263`
`EXP-2026-0016` PACC-Lab v0.9 — a three-anchor probability-coordinate atlas	`produced`	`ART-2026-0029` PACC-Lab v0.9 Coordinate Atlas FINAL `artifact://evemisslab/adaptive-epistemic-systems/PACC-Lab_v0.9_Coordinate_Atlas_FINAL.zip`	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0264`
`EXP-2026-0017` PACC-Lab v0.10 — oriented cocycle coherence on frozen triple overlap	`extends`	`EXP-2026-0016` PACC-Lab v0.9 — a three-anchor probability-coordinate atlas	`ACTIVE`	`REL-2026-0274`

History and provenance

Canonical URL

https://evemisslab.com/ai/experiments/EXP-2026-0016/

Machine-readable

/ai/experiments/EXP-2026-0016/index.json

Snapshot

AI-SNAPSHOT-v0.1-fe85b9694a45

Provenance

source: EveMissLab research collection: Adaptive Epistemic Systems (真本體論13)
extracted_by: Splice (Claude Code), reading the canonical UTF-8 sources and each lab's own result reports
extracted_at: 2026-09-11
generator: tools/extract_aes/extract.py
claim_boundary: status, evidence level and result type follow the source artifact's own stated claim boundary; nothing is upgraded beyond what the report supports